free tool · Degen risk and bankroll math
risk of ruin calculator
Simulate 10,000 traders with your numbers and see how many blow up.
- 100% free
- No sign-up
- No wallet connection
your numbers
Trades and ruin level (100 trades, 20% by default)
your result
Bankroll at the end of 100 trades: 8 in 10 runs end inside the band
Monte Carlo: 10,000 simulated traders with your numbers, same random seed so a shared link shows the same result.
Even with a positive edge, betting too much of the bankroll per trade makes ruin likely: a few losses in a row compound faster than the wins.
Runs in your browser. Nothing is stored or sent to us. Not financial advice.
quick answer
What is risk of ruin in trading?
The probability that losses shrink a bankroll below a level from which you can no longer trade, over a given number of trades.
how to use the risk of ruin calculator
Risk of ruin is the chance that a run of losses takes your bankroll below the point where you can keep trading. This calculator runs 10,000 simulated traders with your numbers and shows how many are ruined, how many double, and what a typical, unlucky and lucky run ends with.
Bankroll and bet
Enter your starting bankroll and the share of the current bankroll you bet per trade.
Your odds
Enter your win rate, what winners end at and what losers lose.
Trades and ruin level
Enter the number of trades and the level you call ruin (20% means you stop below a fifth of the start).
Read the odds
Read the ruin probability, the chance to double and the percentile outcomes.
formula
The exact math the risk of ruin calculator runs, so you can check any result by hand.
each trade: bankroll += bankroll × bet × (outcome multiple − 1)ruined if bankroll ≤ ruin level at any point10,000 runs, fixed random seed
guide
why bet size decides survival
Two traders with the same edge can end up in opposite places. Betting 5% of the bankroll per trade survives a streak of ten losses with 60% of the money left; betting 30% leaves under 3%. Ruin comes from bet size combined with variance, not only from a bad strategy. Try the same numbers at 5%, 10% and 25% per trade and watch the ruin probability.
reading the result
The median is what a typical trader with your numbers ends with. The 10th percentile is an unlucky but entirely normal outcome: one in ten traders does worse. If the unlucky outcome would end your trading, the bet size is too big even if the median looks great.
frequently asked questions
How do I lower my risk of ruin?
Bet a smaller share of the bankroll per trade, cut losing trades earlier (a smaller average loss), or improve the win rate or payout. Bet size is the lever you control fully.
Why use a simulation instead of a formula?
Closed-form risk of ruin formulas assume fixed bet sizes and simple wins and losses. A Monte Carlo simulation handles percentage bets and any payout, and shows the whole range of outcomes, not one number.
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