free tool · Degen risk and bankroll math

Kelly criterion calculator for crypto traders

Find the growth-optimal bet size for your win rate and payout.

100% free
No sign-up
No wallet connection

your numbers

Bankroll$Win rate%share of trades that hit your targetWinners end atxaverage exit multiple on winnersLosers lose%100% = rug, 50% = stopped at half

your result

Full Kelly

25.8%

Bet $516.67 per trade, the size that grows the bankroll fastest.

Typical result after 100 trades, by bet size

bet size per trade (share of bankroll) · K = full Kelly · log scale

Half Kelly

12.9%

$258.33 per trade

Quarter Kelly

6.5%

$129.17 per trade

Break-even win rate

23.1%

for 3.00x winners

Growth table: ¼, ½, 1 and 2× Kelly after 100 trades

Growth per 100 trades by bet size
Bet size	Share of bankroll	Typical result after 100 trades
0.25× Kelly	6.5%	5.38x
0.5× Kelly	12.9%	16.4x
Full Kelly	25.8%	37.7x
2× Kelly	51.7%	2.05x

Kelly assumes your win rate and payout are accurate. They rarely are, which is why most traders bet half or a quarter of Kelly: it gives up a little growth for far smaller drawdowns. At 2× Kelly the typical growth falls to roughly zero while drawdowns get much deeper.

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quick answer

What is the Kelly criterion?

A formula for the fraction of a bankroll to bet on a repeated favourable bet so that long-run growth is maximised. It was published by John Kelly in 1956 and is used in betting and trading.

how to use the kelly criterion calculator

The Kelly criterion tells you what share of your bankroll to bet so it grows as fast as possible over many trades. Enter your win rate, what winners end at and how much losers lose to get full, half and quarter Kelly, in percent and in dollars.

Enter your bankroll
Enter your bankroll.
Enter your win rate
Enter your win rate from past trades.
Winners and losers
Enter the average multiple winners end at (3 = a 3x) and the average loss on losers (100% for rugs, 50% if you stop out at half).
Read the bet size
Read the Kelly fraction and the break-even win rate.

formula

The exact math the kelly criterion calculator runs, so you can check any result by hand.

b = win multiple − 1 (net odds)Kelly f* = p ÷ loss − (1 − p) ÷ bbreak-even win rate = loss ÷ (loss + b)

guide

worked example

Win rate 35%, winners end at 3x (b = 2), losers lose 60%. Kelly = 0.35 ÷ 0.6 − 0.65 ÷ 2 = 0.583 − 0.325 = 25.8% of the bankroll per trade. Half Kelly is 12.9%. Break-even win rate is 0.6 ÷ 2.6 = 23%.

why nobody bets full Kelly

Kelly is only optimal when your inputs are exact, and in trading they never are. Overestimating your edge makes the Kelly bet too large, and betting twice the true Kelly size gives roughly zero long-run growth with brutal drawdowns. Half Kelly keeps about three quarters of the growth with far smaller swings, which is why it is the usual choice.

frequently asked questions

What does a negative Kelly mean?

No edge: with your win rate and payout the bet loses money on average, so the growth-optimal bet is zero.

Should I use full or half Kelly?

Half or quarter Kelly. Your win rate and payout are estimates, and the cost of betting too much is much larger than the cost of betting a little too little.

The next check traders usually run after this one.