free tool · Degen risk and bankroll math

memecoin expected value calculator

Is your ape strategy +EV? Enter your odds and see the long-run result.

100% free
No sign-up
No wallet connection

your numbers

Stake per trade$

Examples:

Outcomes: what the stake ends up worth, and how often (0x = rug, 1x = flat, 10x = 10x)

Outcome 1 ends atxOutcome 1 chance%

Outcome 2 ends atxOutcome 2 chance%

Outcome 3 ends atxOutcome 3 chance%

Outcome 4 ends atxOutcome 4 chance%

Outcome 5 ends atxOutcome 5 chance%

Chances add up to100.0%

your result

Expected value per trade−EV

-$32.50

-32.50% of the stake on average, per trade.

Outcome · chance · what it adds to the expected value

0x70.0%-$70.00 EV
0.5x15.0%-$7.50 EV
2x10.0%+$10.00 EV
5x4.0%+$16.00 EV
20x1.0%+$19.00 EV

Chance of losing money

85.0%

Average outcome

0.68x

Kelly bet size

0.0%

no bet: no positive expected growth

Negative expected value: every trade with these odds loses $32.50 on average. No bet size fixes that.

The presets are illustrations, not market statistics. Use the numbers from your own trade journal: how often your apes rug, stall or run.

Expected value is the long-run average over many trades. A single ape can still go to zero; most of the value in memecoin EV sits in rare large winners.

Runs in your browser. Nothing is stored or sent to us. Not financial advice.

quick answer

How do you calculate expected value in trading?

Multiply each possible outcome by its probability and add them up, then subtract the stake. If 70% of trades go to zero, 20% double and 10% do 10x, the average outcome is 1.4x: +40% expected value per trade.

how to use the memecoin expected value calculator

Every ape is a bet with several outcomes: a rug, a small loss, a 2x, a rare 20x. Enter what the stake ends up worth in each case and how often it happens to get the expected value of the strategy, your chance of losing on any one trade, and the Kelly bet size.

Set your stake
Enter your usual stake per trade.
List the outcomes
List the outcomes: what the stake is worth at the end (0x for a rug, 1x for flat, 5x for a 5x) and how often each happens. Chances must add up to 100%.
Use your journal
Use your own trade journal for the numbers; the presets are only illustrations.
Read the EV
Read the expected value, the chance of losing money and the Kelly fraction.

formula

The exact math the memecoin expected value calculator runs, so you can check any result by hand.

average outcome = Σ chance × multipleexpected value per $1 = average outcome − 1Kelly fraction f maximises Σ chance × ln(1 + f × (multiple − 1))

guide

positive EV with a 70% loss rate

Memecoin strategies usually lose on most trades and live on a few big winners. Losing 7 trades in 10 can still be profitable if the winners pay enough: the expected value adds every outcome weighted by how often it happens. The reverse also holds: a high win rate with small wins and occasional rugs can be negative EV.

EV is not enough

A positive expected value is necessary but not sufficient. If you bet too much of your bankroll per trade, a normal losing streak wipes you out before the winners arrive. The Kelly fraction shows the bet size that grows the bankroll fastest in the long run; most traders use a half or a quarter of it. Test your numbers in the risk of ruin calculator.

frequently asked questions

Is memecoin trading positive expected value?

It depends entirely on your numbers. Buying random fresh launches is strongly negative for most people because most tokens go to zero; selective strategies with strict exits can be positive. Plug in your real results to find out.

What is a good expected value per trade?

Any positive value is an edge, but small edges need many trades and small bet sizes to show up. Compare it with the Kelly fraction to size bets sensibly.

The next check traders usually run after this one.