Memecoin exit plan: how much to buy and when to sell (with the numbers)

step 1: the risk budget

Pick the share of your trading bankroll you accept to lose on one trade. The position size calculator defaults to 2%: on $5,000 that is $100.00. Ten full losses in a row would cost $1,000.00, 20% of the bankroll; painful, not fatal.

step 2: make the position the risk budget

Classic sizing divides the risk by the distance to your stop. Enter at a $400K market cap with a stop at $280K (30% lower) and 2% round-trip costs, and the calculator allows $312.50. If the token gaps through the stop to zero, that position loses $312.50, more than three times your budget.

Memecoins gap. In our study of 415 tokens that entered FOMO Trending, 26.5% were 90% or more below their entry market cap a few days later. So size the position at the risk budget itself, what the calculator calls the rug-proof size: $100.00.

step 3: the take-profit ladder

The take-profit calculator's default ladder: at each rung, sell a share of what you still hold. With $100 in at a $400K market cap and a 1% fee on each buy and sell:

Two things the table shows. Half at 2x is not quite your money back once fees are paid: with 1% per side you have to sell 51.02% at 2x to recover the full $100. And selling a third at 2x, a common rule, returns $66.67 before fees, 67% of what you put in; the rest is not a free ride.

The calculator below opens with $300 in. Type 100 as the amount and 400k as the entry market cap (under fee and entry market cap) to get the table above.

step 4: what FOMO's fees do to the ladder

The calculator's 1% per side is an assumption. On FOMO, a Solana order between $47.50 and $190 pays a flat $0.95, so this plan's four orders pay:

That is $3.80 in FOMO fees on the whole plan, close to the 1% default. Shrink the position to $20 and every order drops into the 2% band, and a $1,000 position pays 0.50%: the FOMO fee calculator shows the band for your size. Slippage comes on top, and it grows with your order against the pool.

step 5: how often each rung fills

Measured from the market cap at entry, 25.5% of the tokens in our study reached 2x, 6.7% reached 5x and 2.9% reached 10x. Most trades on trending tokens never reach the first rung, and a buyer after the alert starts above the entry market cap, so the real odds are lower still.

That is why the ladder sells half at the first rung: it is the only one that fills often, and it fills fast. Half of the 2x moves we could time came within 71.5 minutes of entry, so the plan has to exist before the alert, not after it. For the part that never gets there, set a rule before you buy: an invalidation price, or leaving when volume dies. Our board drops a token once it is 12 hours old with under $10K of 6-hour volume, and 72.0% of the tokens in our study were dropped that way.

step 6: do not hold the losers for a comeback

A token down 80% needs to rise 400% just to get you back to even (the loss recovery calculator shows any drawdown). With the rug-proof size, a loser costs you your $100 budget and nothing more; averaging down turns it into a bigger bet on the token most likely to keep falling.